Year in Review and Look Ahead
March 14 2024

Low Vol Lessons for 2024: Don't Be Swept Up by Market Euphoria

5 min read

After the market convulsions in 2022 - double-digit losses for bonds and equities, supply chain disruptions caused by the war in Ukraine, and interest rate rises - last year brought a turnaround in equity markets. Driven by risk taking and a handful of stocks, the rally led to positive double-digit performance in global markets, but it produced relative headwinds for many types of investors, including those that employ the low volatility style.

This is according to the recent TDAM Low Volatility Investing: Year in Review and Look Ahead article, which unpacks last year's low volatility environment and offers reflections on what investors should keep in mind this year.

Risk-on rallying types of environments like 2023 are challenging for low volatility strategies, which primarily invest in stable non-cyclical companies. Low volatility strategies are designed take advantage of the low volatility anomaly and are constructed to have less risk than that of a capitalization-weighted benchmark without sacrificing long-term returns. As a result, low volatility strategies tend to lag in strong upward moving markets, and they lag even more so when those markets are fueled by increased risk taking. 在較長的投資週期中,低波動策略往往在股票市場不利的情況下,為投資者創造更可觀的相對收益。

Investors may be tempted to take advantage of the recent stock market rebound in the hope that it will continue. However, the phenomenon of a meteoric increase in market concentration in a handful of volatile and expensive securities, which is behind this recent surge, is the same phenomenon that makes markets extremely vulnerable. This same phenomenon took place in 2020 and ended in the double-digit market declines of 2022. Unlike 2020 though, today interest rates are significantly higher and their definitive impact remains to be seen.

This is why building a more diversified portfolio, staying away from the excesses of capitalization-weighted indices, and being attentive to the valuation and quality of the securities purchased are all measures that are even more essential today than they were a year ago.

For more detail, read the full article.

 

本文所包含的資訊僅供參考。內容乃出自可靠之來源匯編而成。本文並不提供任何財務、法律、稅務或投資建議。 Particular investment, tax or trading strategies should be evaluated relative to each individual's objectives and risk tolerance.

This material is not an offer to any person in any jurisdiction where unlawful or unauthorized. These materials have not been reviewed by and are not registered with any securities or other regulatory authority in jurisdictions where we operate.

這類資料對證券或市場狀況的任何一般討論或意見均代表我們的看法或引用來源的觀點。除非另有註明,否則這些觀點僅為所註明日期當時的觀點,並且有可能會改變。投資組合持倉、資產配置或分散投資的資訊是基於歷史數據的,因此可能會隨時變化。

This document may contain forward-looking statements ("FLS").FLS反映了目前可用數據對未來事件及/或結果的現有期望和預測。由於可能會出現在構想時未曾預料或未考慮的事件,導致實際結果與明示或暗示的結果大相徑庭,因此這類預期和預測在未來可能被證明是錯誤的。FLS並不保證未來的表現,請勿過度依賴FLS。

引用的各項指數屬於獲廣泛認可的投資基準,並代表非管理投資組合。不可能直接投資於某個指數。指數資訊使用家可將投資策略的結果及廣泛認可的市場指數比較。我們並未聲明該指數是衡量此類對比的適當標準。指數的表現不考慮交易傭金和費用。指數波動性可能與策略的波動性存在顯著差異,而且投資組合的持倉可能會與構成指數的證券存在顯著差異。

TD全球投資方案代表道明資產管理有限公司 (簡稱「TDAM」) 和Epoch Investment Partners, Inc. (簡稱「TD Epoch」)。道明資產管理有限公司和TD Epoch均為道明銀行的附屬機構和全資擁有的附屬機構。

® TD標誌和其他TD商標為道明銀行或其子公司的產權。

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